The election result in the Anne Arundel County judicial race is still apparently too close to call. In this goofy process, all three candidates are on the ballot for both parties in the primary with the top two advancing from each party. So, theoretically, all three can advance to the general election. Here is what we do know:
- Judge Laura Kiessling is a lock to advance and, based on the primary results, seems like a virtual lock to win in the general election. In fact, the Maryland Injury Lawyer Blog is ready to call the race in November for Judge Kiessling. (A little premature, sure, but if I’m wrong, then I’m still no less credible than CNN.)
- Alison Asti is going to come in first or second on the Republican ballot which means she will advance to the November election.
- Judge Ronald Jarashow came in third in the Republican primary. It is too close to call but I’m betting he will come in second in the Democratic primary.
Let’s assume that Judge Jarashow can advance and the candidates are merged together for the election in November. The merged vote count from the primary:
The take home message? Judge Jarashow faces an uphill battle in November. Of course, a lot can happen between now and November. But I’m not sure what that will be. There are no real issues in the campaign.
don’t even think Alison Asti supporters are suggesting Judge Jarashow is not eminently qualified to be a judge. So any game changers have to come from within the judge’s campaign itself. So he has to revamp his campaign strategy and transform into a politician for two months. (This is reason #4,320 why judicial elections are a bad idea.) Judge Jarashow also has another distinct disadvantage: he has to show up for work every day.
The good news for Judge Jarashow is that I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about. The contested elections in the fall are going to bring out different votes than the primaries do and that new group of voters may be more predisposed to one judge over another. There could be other factors at play that an amateur political analyst can’t see.